Personal Computers: Will Product Come on Fast?
"Sight & Sound Marketing," 1979, Page 56.


Personal computers, which were unheard of but for a small band of hobbyists and 
businessmen as recently as two years ago, could reach a total sales level of 
300,000 units in 1979.

That was the prediction of Gene Carter of Apple Computer Inc., adding that 
these basic systems would be in the $600 to $1,500 price range.

"And that's not counting attachments such as a $500 floppy disk, a $1,200 
printer and a $500 telephone interface," Carter said.

Apple, which found itself in a sold out position with a backlog of orders in 
mid-78, expects that the market will continue to grow as more product becomes 
available and the "fringing" effect sets in.

"What's happening now is that people are seeing these units, say, in a 
neighbor's home. They're curious about it. They talk about it to their friends. 
They may even decide to buy one. And then their friends and neighbors see that 
computer," Carter explained.

"People really want this type of product, and now they're starting to justify 
to themselves that they should own one, either because it will be a good 
educational tool for the kids, or because it will help them keep their 
financial records straight or whatever," he said.

Exidy Inc., maker of the Sorcerer computer, believes that 1979 will be the year 
for attachments to come on strong.

"I'd say that 40 percent of our customers are interested in sophisticated 
attachments to the basic unit," noted Paul Terrell of Exidy.

Such attachments as line printers, video screens, disk drive, color, and 
appreciations programs will be the "blades," to the basic unit which could be 
likened to a "razor."

Terrell predicted that mass merchandisers will hop on the personal computer 
bandwagon in the second half of 1979, as will audio/video stores and small 
business equipment stores.

Manufacturers credited Radio Shack for a "tremendous job" in promoting consumer 
acceptance of the personal computer with its extensive print and television 
advertising campaign.

"If they had the capability, they could probably produce up to 40,000 personal 
computers a month, with no problem. I've yet to talk to a Radio Shack dealer 
who has sold fewer than 100 computers a month since last January," Terrell 
pointed out.

But what about the high end programmable video games? Aren't they inching 
perilously close to becoming personal computers? Not according to Gene Carter.

"A computer is an interactive piece of consumer electronics. The video games 
are not; they are restricted in their applications. We are not competing with 
Atari, Bally or Mattel. If anything, we'll move up, not down, to suit the 
market," he said.

Carter is confident that once the consumer gets his/her hands on a personal 
computer, it won't be long before he/she begins to add attachments to increase 
the machine's capability. The firm's next generation of personal computer, 
Carter said, "would assume a certain level of understanding on the part of the 
buyer, and will go on from there."

With all the enthusiasm about this youngest consumer electronics "star," are 
other computer manufacturers about to enter the fray?

According to a spokesman for Texas Instruments, the answer is a definite maybe.

"There has been a lot of speculation about that," the spokesman said. "And it's 
true that there's hardly an area of electronic data processing that Texas 
Instrument, isn't interested in. But no decision has been made. It's open-ended 
right now."

One problem, the spokesman noted, is that the very term "personal computer" 
isn't all that clearly defined yet. The firm has a programmable calculator, for 
example, that does many of the same things as do personal computers. On the 
other hand, the firm makes computers with video screens suitable for small 
business use, but with more memory and at a higher cost, than do personal 
computers!